Thoughts on Bubble 2.0

Firstly, kudos to Karl Long for sharing the video way below (feed readers, it's after the jump). 

But I'm not going to show it to you yet, because we all know that nobody reads much AFTER the video.

Thoughts on Bubble 2.0

• There are far too many startups getting significant funding without a secure and monetizable business plan or model.

• Too many startups are relying on advertising, particularly in the form of banners and user tracking.
  • As an advertiser, I don't care about your potential reach, I care about your actual reach, your offering, the nature of your environment and the type of users you're getting.

• Too many startups are building hype and buzz without building meaningful substantive interactions that secure market positioning.
  • Anybody can build a Glam Network competitor, just offer a couple more shekels!

• The economy is already shaky. 
  
  • I've already met with a couple of LARGE 2.0 companies that have moved up the timetable on their next round of funding out of concern over a potential market downturn.

On The Flip Side

• Broadband proliferation continues to grow.
• Digital media usage continues to grow.
• Consumer usage and perception of emerging channels continues at an exponential rate.
• Change is inevitable.  A crash may slow down the rate of change, but it isn't going to stop it. 
• Digital media is the future.

Key Takeaway for Tech People

Trends are by their very nature, transitive. 

• If you're offering is built around a current trend, then you will have to innovate and/or recreate your offering over and over again. 

• Human nature on the other hand, is everlasting.

 

If you're offering speaks to a trend (UGC video clips in a world without meaningful digital media) you will need to innovate quarterly in order to maintain growth and even market position. 

If on the other hand, you're working with a basic human drive (search and discovery of information), then your platform will only need to continue to broaden it's scope to maintain relevancy, but will not need to re-create itself every 18 months.

Concept in Action - Facebook

Facebook made a BIG mistake.  Facebook enhances a key element of the natural human experience - socialization in all it's many forms (recommending, sharing, communicating, challenged etc).  Zuckerburg however, lost his direction in creating a trend based (behavioral targeting) solution that redirected the media hype and the user-friendly image the public had of Facebook. 

Facebook was a company that was organic; it fit into your life oh so naturally.  In an attempt to "innovate", Facebook's stellar reputation was smudged.   

The Bottom Line

• Success isn't about trends, it's about sustainability. 

• Bubble's don't pop great, sustainable, soundly built companies.

 

Only straw houses fall at the slightest breeze.